What Analysts Are Saying Ahead of Nike’s Q3 Earnings
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Nike ahead of the brand’s third quarter earnings report on Thursday.
Nike, which has been led by company veteran Elliott Hill since October, has made several moves in recent months to turnaround the business, which was struggling under its previous leadership.
Baird senior research analyst Jonathan Komp expects Nike to reach third quarter estimates on Thursday and will maintain a cautious sales and margin outlook for Q4.
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“While we have been encouraged by the leadership transition, early signs of successful new product introductions (in running, healthier Jordan releases), and more impactful branding and marketing, we now are modeling fiscal 2026 more conservatively given potential reinvestments and broader macro uncertainties (including tariffs),” Komp wrote in a note to investors last week. “Still, we believe the stock can work as investors gain confidence in the turnaround progress and pathway to much higher multi-year earnings potential.”
Williams Trading analyst Sam Poser agreed, adding in his note to investors last week that Nike should “come in as guided” in Q3. “Nike will continue to provide 90-day guidance until visibility improves enough to provide long term guidance,” Poser wrote. “As orders for October are due this month, we would not be surprised if fiscal year 2026 guidance is provided when Q4 2025 earnings are reported in June.”
Poser added that he expects the upcoming third quarter, as well as Q4, the first quarter of fiscal 2026 and the first month of Q2 2026 to “remain challenging but sequentially become less bad.”
“During aforementioned periods, Nike will take goods back from its wholesale partners, continue to promote to liquidate goods that were oversaturated in the marketplace, or should never have been made, and begin reestablishing a pull model,” Poser noted. “Nike is working to pull orders forward in order to offer compelling new product, especially for women.”
These sentiments follow Hill’s recent meetings with top industry analysts last month.
The overall consensus is that Nike management is making the right moves but still has a long way to go before the beleaguered brand returns to its glory days. It’s expected that a recovery will commence in the back half of the second quarter of fiscal 2026, which is set to accelerate through the balance of fiscal 2026.
