FDRA: Q1 Exec Sentiment Is Most Pessimistic in Survey History
Footwear executives have never been as pessimistic as they are now, according to a Q1 Shoe Executive Business Survey from The Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA).
The survey’s data points, disclosed on Monday, revealed growing concerns among the respondents over rising costs, weakening consumer demand, and ongoing impact from tariffs.
The latest report indicates that 87 percent of respondents expect a weaker economy over the next six months. While that’s the most pessimistic outlook in the survey’s history, the FDRA said the report also indicates expectations of the footwear executives regarding the consumer mindset. Eighty-five percent predict weaker shoe shopper demand. In addition, 50 percent expect declining sales in the months ahead.
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“These results confirm what we’re hearing across the industry—consumer confidence has weakened significantly, and demand is slipping,” FDRA president and CEO Matt Priest said. “Footwear is a necessity, but for many families, that extra pair of shoes is becoming a luxury they can’t justify.”
Priest said “surgical actions” are needed to ease thee impacts from tariffs and trade policy, both to help American families struggling with rising costs and to support businesses that are vital to America’s economy.
In the survey, footwear firms are reporting an increase in financial strain. Ninety-seven said they expect their landed costs to rise in the next six month. In addition, 31 percent expect cost increases of up to 10 percent, while 45 percent foresee jumps of between 11 percent to 20 percent. And nearly 75 percent of the footwear executives cited to government interference—primarily tariffs—as their top business concern.
The FDRA said survey results align with newly released U.S. government retail data, which showed that January 2025 shoe store sales plummeted nearly 8 percent year-over-year. That data point represented the 21st decline in the last 23 months for footwear retail sales. Industry leaders warned that one big concern is that higher costs and weaker consumer demand could result in 2025 sales hitting their lowest levels in five years.
For the week ended Feb. 22, the most recent data available, footwear sales plunged 26.2 percent from year-ago levels. Priest said at the time that consumers were pulling back on discretionary spending as they grew concerned about rising inflation due to new tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, who was inaugurated as the 47th President of the U.S. on Jan. 20, 2025.
Retail footwear prices in February slid a modest 0.2 percent from year-ago levels, representing only the second decline in the last 18 months, according to the FDRA. But that dip—down 1.5 percent year-over-year for children’s shoes and a 0.6 percent slip for women’s footwear—was offset by a 0.8 percent rise in men’s shoes. The concern is that duties are rising as footwear prices are on the decline, resulting in both a potential increase in inventories as consumers pull back on spending as well as rising costs for America’s largest footwear suppliers.
One retail executive in the FDRA survey said: “As family budgets continue to tighten shoes continue to become a need driven purchase, causing fewer visits to shoe stores and fewer buying occasions. Overall inflationary pressure especially hurts discretionary purchases [and] that extra pair of shoes in the closet is a luxury many families just cannot justify.”
The consumer mindset doesn’t appear to be improving anytime soon.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for March fell by 7.2 points to 92.9, representing a decline for four consecutive months. Both components of the Index fell last month. The Present Situation Index was down 3.6 points to 134.5. The Expectations Index, which measure the short-term outlook for the next six months, was down 9.6 points to 65.2, representing the lowest level in 12 years. The short-term outlook was also below the threshold of 80, which usually signals that a recession is ahead.
According to the Conference Board, consumers’ write-in responses for the March survey was dominated by inflation concerns, while worries about the impact of trade policies and tariffs in particular were on the rise.
